Leave Barry Bonds Alone
by lostofficehero on Jun.01, 2007, under sports
Since Barry Bonds has just left New York, I can now put in my 2 cents on his home run title chase. And here they are: It doesn’t matter. He’s going to get it. Let him get it. Let him enjoy it. It’s not going to last very long. And that’s the important thing to remember: It’s not going to last very long.
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Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth’s record in 1974 and then finished his career in 1976. That was a little over 30 years ago. I don’t suspect that Mr. Bonds’ record will even last for 30 years. Sometime within the next 15-20 years, maybe sooner, the record that Bonds sets this year will be shattered. Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, maybe even Griffey Jr. are great candidates to surpass Bonds, here are some projections:
If A-Rod (worse than Bonds?) averages 40 HR a season until he turns 40, he’ll have 824.
If Griffey Jr. hits 200 HR over the next 4 seasons, he’ll be at 763 (that’s 50 per season).
If Albert Pujols averages 50 home runs for the next 10 seasons (he’s 27 years old), he’ll be at 750.
The bottom line is that averaging 50 home runs a year is not that far fetched these days. If a player comes up and averages 50 for 20 years, he’s at 1000 home runs for his career. I don’t know if I will see that in my lifetime, but I am sure it will happen sooner or later.
So, I say let Bonds enjoy his record – it’s not going to last very long.
